Peg Instability Detector — 2026-06-18
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 4
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-06-17T22:31:04.078000+00:00 → 2026-06-18T22:30:55+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $0.9999 | 1 | 0.3720 | Moderate | 0.007 | 1.000 | 0.094 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9974 | 26 | 0.5238 | High | 0.346 | 1.000 | 0.091 | deteriorating |
| USDC | $1.0000 | 0 | 0.3686 | Moderate | 0.001 | 1.000 | 0.091 | stable |
| USDT | $0.9981 | 19 | 0.4102 | Moderate | 0.094 | 1.000 | 0.090 | stable |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.5238 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.5238). Price at $0.9974 (26 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $0.9999 (1 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3720 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0070
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0941
- MiPD score: 0.1147 (vol: 0.000114, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9974 (26 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.5238 — High
- Trend: deteriorating
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.3458
- Persistence: 125m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: attention (monitor)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0907
- MiPD score: 0.1085 (vol: 0.000104, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $1.0000 (0 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3686 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0010
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0909
- MiPD score: 0.1090 (vol: 0.000099, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDT
- Price: $0.9981 (19 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.4102 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0936
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0904
- MiPD score: 0.1081 (vol: 0.000073, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology