Peg Instability Detector — 2026-06-28

Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 4
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-06-27T22:30:52.485000+00:00 → 2026-06-28T22:30:19+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0

🛡️ Composite Risk Scores High score = higher risk

Per-Coin Results

CoinPriceOff Peg (bps)Composite ScoreRisk LevelLane 1Lane 2Lane 3Trend
DAI$0.999640.3780Moderate0.0201.0000.095stable
FDUSD$0.9969310.6516High0.6251.0000.103stable
USDC$0.999730.3743Moderate0.0131.0000.093stable
USDT$0.9985150.4012Moderate0.0731.0000.091unknown

Active Alerts

LevelCoinScoreDriverMessage
ORANGEFDUSD0.6516changepointFDUSD: High risk (score 0.6516). Price at $0.9969 (31 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint.

Detailed Analysis

DAI

  • Price: $0.9996 (4 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.3780 — Moderate
  • Trend: stable

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.0199
  • Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: none (stable)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.0953
  • MiPD score: 0.1169 (vol: 0.000098, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

FDUSD

  • Price: $0.9969 (31 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.6516 — High
  • Trend: stable

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.6245
  • Persistence: 272m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: attention (monitor)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.1030
  • MiPD score: 0.1309 (vol: 0.000111, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

USDC

  • Price: $0.9997 (3 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.3743 — Moderate
  • Trend: stable

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.0129
  • Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: none (stable)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.0926
  • MiPD score: 0.1119 (vol: 0.000052, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

USDT

  • Price: $0.9985 (15 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.4012 — Moderate
  • Trend: unknown

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.0734
  • Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: none (stable)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.0906
  • MiPD score: 0.1083 (vol: 0.000039, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology