Peg Instability Detector — 2026-06-29

Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 4
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-06-28T22:30:10.103000+00:00 → 2026-06-29T22:30:33+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0

🛡️ Composite Risk Scores High score = higher risk

Per-Coin Results

CoinPriceOff Peg (bps)Composite ScoreRisk LevelLane 1Lane 2Lane 3Trend
DAI$0.999550.3821Moderate0.0251.0000.103stable
FDUSD$0.9966340.6713High0.6701.0000.099stable
USDC$0.999640.3765Moderate0.0181.0000.092stable
USDT$0.9985150.4022Moderate0.0761.0000.090unknown

Active Alerts

LevelCoinScoreDriverMessage
ORANGEFDUSD0.6713changepointFDUSD: High risk (score 0.6713). Price at $0.9966 (34 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint.

Detailed Analysis

DAI

  • Price: $0.9995 (5 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.3821 — Moderate
  • Trend: stable

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.0253
  • Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: none (stable)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.1035
  • MiPD score: 0.1317 (vol: 0.000122, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

FDUSD

  • Price: $0.9966 (34 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.6713 — High
  • Trend: stable

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.6700
  • Persistence: 289m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: attention (monitor)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.0990
  • MiPD score: 0.1236 (vol: 0.000111, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

USDC

  • Price: $0.9996 (4 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.3765 — Moderate
  • Trend: stable

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.0180
  • Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: none (stable)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.0919
  • MiPD score: 0.1107 (vol: 0.000083, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

USDT

  • Price: $0.9985 (15 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.4022 — Moderate
  • Trend: unknown

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.0761
  • Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: none (stable)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.0896
  • MiPD score: 0.1065 (vol: 0.000045, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology