Peg Instability Detector — 2026-07-01

Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 5
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-06-30T22:55:06.814000+00:00 → 2026-07-01T22:52:06+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0

🛡️ Composite Risk Scores High score = higher risk

Per-Coin Results

CoinPriceOff Peg (bps)Composite ScoreRisk LevelLane 1Lane 2Lane 3Trend
DAI$0.999640.3779Moderate0.0201.0000.094stable
FDUSD$0.9970300.6616High0.6511.0000.094stable
USDC$0.999730.3758Moderate0.0171.0000.090stable
USDT$0.9990100.3916Moderate0.0521.0000.090unknown
USDe$0.9984160.4036Moderate0.0791.0000.090unknown

Active Alerts

LevelCoinScoreDriverMessage
ORANGEFDUSD0.6616changepointFDUSD: High risk (score 0.6616). Price at $0.9970 (30 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint.

Detailed Analysis

DAI

  • Price: $0.9996 (4 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.3779 — Moderate
  • Trend: stable

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.0202
  • Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: none (stable)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.0943
  • MiPD score: 0.1151 (vol: 0.000120, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

FDUSD

  • Price: $0.9970 (30 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.6616 — High
  • Trend: stable

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.6509
  • Persistence: 288m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: attention (monitor)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.0936
  • MiPD score: 0.1139 (vol: 0.000088, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

USDC

  • Price: $0.9997 (3 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.3758 — Moderate
  • Trend: stable

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.0174
  • Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: none (stable)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.0901
  • MiPD score: 0.1074 (vol: 0.000047, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

USDT

  • Price: $0.9990 (10 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.3916 — Moderate
  • Trend: unknown

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.0524
  • Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: none (stable)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.0899
  • MiPD score: 0.1071 (vol: 0.000036, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

USDe

  • Price: $0.9984 (16 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.4036 — Moderate
  • Trend: unknown

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.0790
  • Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: none (stable)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.0903
  • MiPD score: 0.1079 (vol: 0.000042, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology