Peg Instability Detector — 2026-07-03
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 4
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-07-02T22:31:19.012000+00:00 → 2026-07-03T22:31:15+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $0.9998 | 2 | 0.3735 | Moderate | 0.009 | 1.000 | 0.098 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9977 | 23 | 0.6286 | High | 0.577 | 1.000 | 0.095 | improving |
| USDC | $0.9999 | 1 | 0.3703 | Moderate | 0.005 | 1.000 | 0.090 | stable |
| USDT | $0.9991 | 9 | 0.3888 | Moderate | 0.046 | 1.000 | 0.090 | unknown |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.6286 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.6286). Price at $0.9977 (23 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $0.9998 (2 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3735 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0088
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0978
- MiPD score: 0.1214 (vol: 0.000106, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9977 (23 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.6286 — High
- Trend: improving
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.5769
- Persistence: 267m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0948
- MiPD score: 0.1160 (vol: 0.000103, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $0.9999 (1 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3703 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0052
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0898
- MiPD score: 0.1070 (vol: 0.000057, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDT
- Price: $0.9991 (9 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3888 — Moderate
- Trend: unknown
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0463
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0896
- MiPD score: 0.1066 (vol: 0.000037, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology