Peg Instability Detector — 2026-07-04

Status: ⚠️ Moderate
Coins analyzed: 4
Active alerts: 0
Data window: 2026-07-03T22:30:42.632000+00:00 → 2026-07-04T22:31:07+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0

🛡️ Composite Risk Scores High score = higher risk

Per-Coin Results

CoinPriceOff Peg (bps)Composite ScoreRisk LevelLane 1Lane 2Lane 3Trend
DAI$0.999730.3772Moderate0.0151.0000.103stable
FDUSD$0.9977230.4231Moderate0.1191.0000.097improving
USDC$0.999910.3708Moderate0.0071.0000.088stable
USDT$0.999280.3866Moderate0.0411.0000.090unknown

Detailed Analysis

DAI

  • Price: $0.9997 (3 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.3772 — Moderate
  • Trend: stable

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.0145
  • Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: none (stable)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.1032
  • MiPD score: 0.1314 (vol: 0.000117, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

FDUSD

  • Price: $0.9977 (23 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.4231 — Moderate
  • Trend: improving

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.1194
  • Persistence: 2m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: none (stable)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.0968
  • MiPD score: 0.1197 (vol: 0.000082, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

USDC

  • Price: $0.9999 (1 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.3708 — Moderate
  • Trend: stable

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.0071
  • Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: none (stable)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.0882
  • MiPD score: 0.1040 (vol: 0.000044, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

USDT

  • Price: $0.9992 (8 bps off peg)
  • Composite score: 0.3866 — Moderate
  • Trend: unknown

Lane 1 — Price Deviation:

  • Score: 0.0412
  • Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
  • Alert: none (stable)

Lane 2 — BOCD:

  • Score: 1.0000
  • Changepoint probability: 0.9993
  • Current run length: 1439 observations

Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:

  • Score: 0.0901
  • MiPD score: 0.1074 (vol: 0.000039, corr: 0.30)
  • LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)

Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology