Peg Instability Detector — 2026-07-11
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 4
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-07-10T22:30:45.038000+00:00 → 2026-07-11T22:30:24+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $0.9997 | 3 | 0.3765 | Moderate | 0.015 | 1.000 | 0.099 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9974 | 26 | 0.6012 | High | 0.511 | 1.000 | 0.107 | stable |
| USDC | $0.9998 | 2 | 0.3724 | Moderate | 0.010 | 1.000 | 0.089 | stable |
| USDT | $0.9993 | 7 | 0.3835 | Moderate | 0.034 | 1.000 | 0.091 | unknown |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.6012 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.6012). Price at $0.9974 (26 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $0.9997 (3 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3765 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0151
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0986
- MiPD score: 0.1229 (vol: 0.000104, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9974 (26 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.6012 — High
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.5108
- Persistence: 219m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: attention (monitor)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.1069
- MiPD score: 0.1379 (vol: 0.000182, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $0.9998 (2 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3724 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0103
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0888
- MiPD score: 0.1050 (vol: 0.000031, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDT
- Price: $0.9993 (7 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3835 — Moderate
- Trend: unknown
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0342
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0906
- MiPD score: 0.1083 (vol: 0.000038, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology