Peg Instability Detector — 2026-07-14
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 4
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-07-13T22:30:14.121000+00:00 → 2026-07-14T22:30:13+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $0.9998 | 2 | 0.3732 | Moderate | 0.010 | 1.000 | 0.093 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9972 | 28 | 0.6515 | High | 0.612 | 1.000 | 0.131 | stable |
| USDC | $0.9999 | 1 | 0.3707 | Moderate | 0.006 | 1.000 | 0.089 | stable |
| USDT | $0.9993 | 7 | 0.3836 | Moderate | 0.034 | 1.000 | 0.091 | unknown |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.6515 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.6515). Price at $0.9972 (28 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $0.9998 (2 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3732 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0102
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0929
- MiPD score: 0.1126 (vol: 0.000116, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9972 (28 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.6515 — High
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.6117
- Persistence: 272m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: attention (monitor)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.1310
- MiPD score: 0.1819 (vol: 0.000380, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $0.9999 (1 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3707 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0062
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0895
- MiPD score: 0.1064 (vol: 0.000043, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDT
- Price: $0.9993 (7 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3836 — Moderate
- Trend: unknown
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0343
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0906
- MiPD score: 0.1084 (vol: 0.000039, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology