Peg Instability Detector — 2026-07-23
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 4
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-07-22T22:30:00+00:00 → 2026-07-23T22:28:40+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $1.0001 | 1 | 0.3704 | Moderate | 0.004 | 1.000 | 0.093 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9974 | 26 | 0.5149 | High | 0.327 | 1.000 | 0.089 | deteriorating |
| USDC | $0.9998 | 2 | 0.3727 | Moderate | 0.011 | 1.000 | 0.088 | stable |
| USDT | $0.9994 | 6 | 0.3817 | Moderate | 0.031 | 1.000 | 0.088 | stable |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.5149 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.5149). Price at $0.9974 (26 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $1.0001 (1 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3704 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0041
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0930
- MiPD score: 0.1128 (vol: 0.000117, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9974 (26 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.5149 — High
- Trend: deteriorating
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.3267
- Persistence: 113m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: attention (monitor)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0895
- MiPD score: 0.1063 (vol: 0.000061, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $0.9998 (2 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3727 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0111
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0884
- MiPD score: 0.1044 (vol: 0.000028, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDT
- Price: $0.9994 (6 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3817 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0312
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0885
- MiPD score: 0.1045 (vol: 0.000025, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology