Peg Instability Detector — 2026-07-25
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 5
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-07-24T22:35:00+00:00 → 2026-07-25T22:29:40+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $1.0002 | 2 | 0.3733 | Moderate | 0.012 | 1.000 | 0.089 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9981 | 19 | 0.6290 | High | 0.555 | 1.000 | 0.146 | improving |
| USDC | $0.9998 | 2 | 0.3723 | Moderate | 0.011 | 1.000 | 0.088 | stable |
| USDT | $0.9993 | 7 | 0.3844 | Moderate | 0.037 | 1.000 | 0.088 | unknown |
| USDe | $1.0000 | 0 | 0.3688 | Moderate | 0.002 | 1.000 | 0.089 | unknown |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.6290 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.629). Price at $0.9981 (19 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $1.0002 (2 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3733 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0121
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0895
- MiPD score: 0.1063 (vol: 0.000105, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9981 (19 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.6290 — High
- Trend: improving
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.5549
- Persistence: 266m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.1465
- MiPD score: 0.2100 (vol: 0.000146, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $0.9998 (2 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3723 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0106
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0877
- MiPD score: 0.1031 (vol: 0.000030, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDT
- Price: $0.9993 (7 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3844 — Moderate
- Trend: unknown
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0373
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0880
- MiPD score: 0.1036 (vol: 0.000022, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDe
- Price: $1.0000 (0 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3688 — Moderate
- Trend: unknown
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0023
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0886
- MiPD score: 0.1047 (vol: 0.000067, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology