Peg Instability Detector — 2026-08-04
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 4
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-08-03T22:35:00+00:00 → 2026-08-04T22:29:30+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $1.0000 | 0 | 0.3711 | Moderate | 0.002 | 1.000 | 0.100 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9974 | 26 | 0.6512 | High | 0.630 | 1.000 | 0.089 | stable |
| USDC | $0.9997 | 3 | 0.3748 | Moderate | 0.016 | 1.000 | 0.088 | stable |
| USDT | $0.9994 | 6 | 0.3822 | Moderate | 0.032 | 1.000 | 0.088 | unknown |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.6512 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.6512). Price at $0.9974 (26 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $1.0000 (0 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3711 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0023
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.1003
- MiPD score: 0.1260 (vol: 0.000112, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9974 (26 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.6512 — High
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.6297
- Persistence: 287m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: attention (monitor)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0893
- MiPD score: 0.1060 (vol: 0.000051, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $0.9997 (3 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3748 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0158
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0883
- MiPD score: 0.1042 (vol: 0.000026, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDT
- Price: $0.9994 (6 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3822 — Moderate
- Trend: unknown
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0324
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0880
- MiPD score: 0.1037 (vol: 0.000021, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology