Peg Instability Detector — 2026-08-07
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 4
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-08-06T22:35:00+00:00 → 2026-08-07T22:29:10+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $1.0000 | 0 | 0.3693 | Moderate | 0.001 | 1.000 | 0.095 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9975 | 25 | 0.6166 | High | 0.553 | 1.000 | 0.089 | stable |
| USDC | $0.9997 | 3 | 0.3737 | Moderate | 0.013 | 1.000 | 0.090 | stable |
| USDT | $0.9995 | 5 | 0.3788 | Moderate | 0.025 | 1.000 | 0.089 | stable |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.6166 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.6166). Price at $0.9975 (25 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $1.0000 (0 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3693 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0010
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0945
- MiPD score: 0.1154 (vol: 0.000101, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9975 (25 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.6166 — High
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.5529
- Persistence: 246m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: attention (monitor)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0888
- MiPD score: 0.1051 (vol: 0.000054, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $0.9997 (3 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3737 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0129
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0896
- MiPD score: 0.1065 (vol: 0.000065, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDT
- Price: $0.9995 (5 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3788 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0245
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0887
- MiPD score: 0.1049 (vol: 0.000032, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology