Peg Instability Detector — 2026-08-09
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 4
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-08-08T22:35:00+00:00 → 2026-08-09T22:28:10+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $1.0001 | 1 | 0.3711 | Moderate | 0.003 | 1.000 | 0.099 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9978 | 22 | 0.5203 | High | 0.334 | 1.000 | 0.100 | stable |
| USDC | $0.9997 | 3 | 0.3754 | Moderate | 0.016 | 1.000 | 0.091 | stable |
| USDT | $0.9994 | 6 | 0.3824 | Moderate | 0.032 | 1.000 | 0.091 | unknown |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.5203 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.5203). Price at $0.9978 (22 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $1.0001 (1 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3711 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0029
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0989
- MiPD score: 0.1235 (vol: 0.000136, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9978 (22 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.5203 — High
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.3339
- Persistence: 129m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.1000
- MiPD score: 0.1255 (vol: 0.000055, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $0.9997 (3 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3754 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0162
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0908
- MiPD score: 0.1087 (vol: 0.000030, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDT
- Price: $0.9994 (6 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3824 — Moderate
- Trend: unknown
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0315
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0909
- MiPD score: 0.1090 (vol: 0.000029, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology