Peg Instability Detector — 2026-08-10
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 5
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-08-09T22:35:00+00:00 → 2026-08-10T22:29:30+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $1.0000 | 0 | 0.3716 | Moderate | 0.001 | 1.000 | 0.106 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9972 | 28 | 0.6317 | High | 0.578 | 1.000 | 0.108 | deteriorating |
| USDC | $0.9996 | 4 | 0.3786 | Moderate | 0.018 | 1.000 | 0.102 | stable |
| USDT | $0.9992 | 8 | 0.3880 | Moderate | 0.039 | 1.000 | 0.103 | unknown |
| USDe | $0.9996 | 4 | 0.3807 | Moderate | 0.022 | 1.000 | 0.103 | unknown |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.6317 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.6317). Price at $0.9972 (28 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $1.0000 (0 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3716 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0007
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.1062
- MiPD score: 0.1368 (vol: 0.000120, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9972 (28 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.6317 — High
- Trend: deteriorating
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.5781
- Persistence: 251m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: attention (monitor)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.1080
- MiPD score: 0.1399 (vol: 0.000079, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $0.9996 (4 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3786 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0179
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.1025
- MiPD score: 0.1300 (vol: 0.000065, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDT
- Price: $0.9992 (8 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3880 — Moderate
- Trend: unknown
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0386
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.1031
- MiPD score: 0.1311 (vol: 0.000067, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDe
- Price: $0.9996 (4 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3807 — Moderate
- Trend: unknown
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0223
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.1034
- MiPD score: 0.1316 (vol: 0.000070, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology