Peg Instability Detector — 2026-08-14
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 4
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-08-13T22:35:00+00:00 → 2026-08-14T22:29:20+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $1.0001 | 1 | 0.3724 | Moderate | 0.004 | 1.000 | 0.102 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9970 | 30 | 0.6553 | High | 0.638 | 1.000 | 0.091 | stable |
| USDC | $0.9997 | 3 | 0.3756 | Moderate | 0.017 | 1.000 | 0.090 | stable |
| USDT | $0.9992 | 8 | 0.3865 | Moderate | 0.041 | 1.000 | 0.090 | stable |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.6553 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.6553). Price at $0.9970 (30 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $1.0001 (1 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3724 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0045
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.1020
- MiPD score: 0.1291 (vol: 0.000201, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9970 (30 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.6553 — High
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.6379
- Persistence: 281m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: attention (monitor)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0913
- MiPD score: 0.1096 (vol: 0.000159, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $0.9997 (3 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3756 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0166
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0905
- MiPD score: 0.1082 (vol: 0.000142, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDT
- Price: $0.9992 (8 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3865 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0411
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0902
- MiPD score: 0.1077 (vol: 0.000150, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology