Peg Instability Detector — 2026-08-17
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 4
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-08-16T22:30:00+00:00 → 2026-08-17T22:28:30+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $0.9998 | 2 | 0.3744 | Moderate | 0.010 | 1.000 | 0.101 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9972 | 28 | 0.6556 | High | 0.639 | 1.000 | 0.090 | stable |
| USDC | $0.9996 | 4 | 0.3759 | Moderate | 0.018 | 1.000 | 0.088 | stable |
| USDT | $0.9992 | 8 | 0.3848 | Moderate | 0.038 | 1.000 | 0.088 | stable |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.6556 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.6556). Price at $0.9972 (28 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $0.9998 (2 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3744 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0096
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.1006
- MiPD score: 0.1265 (vol: 0.000140, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9972 (28 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.6556 — High
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.6392
- Persistence: 287m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: attention (monitor)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0900
- MiPD score: 0.1073 (vol: 0.000085, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $0.9996 (4 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3759 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0183
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0882
- MiPD score: 0.1040 (vol: 0.000073, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDT
- Price: $0.9992 (8 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3848 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0381
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0884
- MiPD score: 0.1043 (vol: 0.000073, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology