Peg Instability Detector — 2026-08-19
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 4
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-08-18T22:35:00+00:00 → 2026-08-19T22:29:00+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $1.0001 | 1 | 0.3718 | Moderate | 0.004 | 1.000 | 0.101 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9981 | 19 | 0.5662 | High | 0.439 | 1.000 | 0.094 | improving |
| USDC | $0.9998 | 2 | 0.3737 | Moderate | 0.012 | 1.000 | 0.090 | stable |
| USDT | $0.9996 | 4 | 0.3783 | Moderate | 0.022 | 1.000 | 0.091 | stable |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.5662 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.5662). Price at $0.9981 (19 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $1.0001 (1 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3718 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0036
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.1008
- MiPD score: 0.1270 (vol: 0.000116, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9981 (19 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.5662 — High
- Trend: improving
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.4387
- Persistence: 198m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0938
- MiPD score: 0.1142 (vol: 0.000096, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $0.9998 (2 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3737 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0124
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0904
- MiPD score: 0.1080 (vol: 0.000055, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDT
- Price: $0.9996 (4 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3783 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0224
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0913
- MiPD score: 0.1097 (vol: 0.000026, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology