Peg Instability Detector — 2026-10-18
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 3
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-10-17T10:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-18T10:29:00+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $1.0001 | 1 | 0.3727 | Moderate | 0.007 | 1.000 | 0.097 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9974 | 26 | 0.6199 | High | 0.560 | 1.000 | 0.090 | stable |
| USDC | $0.9996 | 4 | 0.3762 | Moderate | 0.018 | 1.000 | 0.089 | stable |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.6199 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.6199). Price at $0.9974 (26 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $1.0001 (1 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3727 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0073
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0972
- MiPD score: 0.1204 (vol: 0.000117, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9974 (26 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.6199 — High
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.5597
- Persistence: 247m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: attention (monitor)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0903
- MiPD score: 0.1079 (vol: 0.000042, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $0.9996 (4 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3762 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0185
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0893
- MiPD score: 0.1059 (vol: 0.000023, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology