Peg Instability Detector — 2026-10-30
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 5
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-10-29T22:35:00+00:00 → 2026-10-30T22:29:40+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $1.0001 | 1 | 0.3706 | Moderate | 0.004 | 1.000 | 0.093 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9971 | 29 | 0.6217 | High | 0.563 | 1.000 | 0.093 | stable |
| USDC | $0.9997 | 3 | 0.3739 | Moderate | 0.013 | 1.000 | 0.090 | stable |
| USDT | $0.9991 | 9 | 0.3884 | Moderate | 0.046 | 1.000 | 0.089 | stable |
| USDe | $0.9988 | 12 | 0.4324 | Moderate | 0.142 | 1.000 | 0.091 | unknown |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.6217 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.6217). Price at $0.9971 (29 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $1.0001 (1 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3706 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0043
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0932
- MiPD score: 0.1131 (vol: 0.000127, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9971 (29 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.6217 — High
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.5626
- Persistence: 241m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: attention (monitor)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0927
- MiPD score: 0.1122 (vol: 0.000102, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $0.9997 (3 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3739 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0131
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0901
- MiPD score: 0.1074 (vol: 0.000058, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDT
- Price: $0.9991 (9 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3884 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0459
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0889
- MiPD score: 0.1053 (vol: 0.000051, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDe
- Price: $0.9988 (12 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.4324 — Moderate
- Trend: unknown
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.1424
- Persistence: 47m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0915
- MiPD score: 0.1099 (vol: 0.000094, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology