Peg Instability Detector — 2026-11-02
Status: ⚠️ HIGH
Coins analyzed: 4
Active alerts: 1
Data window: 2026-11-01T23:35:00+00:00 → 2026-11-02T23:29:40+00:00
Pipeline version: 2.0.0
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
High score = higher risk
Per-Coin Results
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite Score | Risk Level | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | $0.9999 | 1 | 0.3722 | Moderate | 0.007 | 1.000 | 0.096 | stable |
| FDUSD | $0.9957 | 43 | 0.6897 | High | 0.716 | 1.000 | 0.088 | stable |
| USDC | $0.9993 | 7 | 0.3834 | Moderate | 0.035 | 1.000 | 0.089 | stable |
| USDT | $0.9986 | 14 | 0.3984 | Moderate | 0.068 | 1.000 | 0.088 | unknown |
Active Alerts
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.6897 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.6897). Price at $0.9957 (43 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Detailed Analysis
DAI
- Price: $0.9999 (1 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3722 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0066
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0959
- MiPD score: 0.1180 (vol: 0.000109, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
FDUSD
- Price: $0.9957 (43 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.6897 — High
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.7156
- Persistence: 288m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: attention (monitor)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0884
- MiPD score: 0.1044 (vol: 0.000056, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDC
- Price: $0.9993 (7 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3834 — Moderate
- Trend: stable
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0347
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0888
- MiPD score: 0.1051 (vol: 0.000078, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
USDT
- Price: $0.9986 (14 bps off peg)
- Composite score: 0.3984 — Moderate
- Trend: unknown
Lane 1 — Price Deviation:
- Score: 0.0683
- Persistence: 0m @ 25bps, 0m @ 50bps, 0m @ 100bps
- Alert: none (stable)
Lane 2 — BOCD:
- Score: 1.0000
- Changepoint probability: 0.9993
- Current run length: 1439 observations
Lane 3 — DIRA Composite:
- Score: 0.0881
- MiPD score: 0.1039 (vol: 0.000028, corr: 0.30)
- LPD score: 0.0600 (curve: 0.33, dex depth Δ: +0.0%)
Methodology: Peg Instability Detector Methodology