Peg Instability Detector

🛡️ Peg Instability Detector

The Stableclaim Peg Instability Detector monitors USDT, USDC, DAI, and USDe for signs of peg instability using a three-lane signal engine. Data updates twice daily (06:30 UTC, 18:30 UTC). Prediction market data from Polymarket polls hourly for depegging probability signals.

⚡ Prefer it interactive? The live dashboard shows system risk at a glance, and its charts view has brush-zoomable depeg odds, threshold-banded peg timelines, and the risk heatmap — same data, sharper tools.

Coins Tracked

DAI, FDUSD, USDC, USDT

Highest Risk

FDUSD

High — Score 61.4%

Active Alerts

⚠️ Monitoring advised

Risk Range

High

Low → Critical scale

🛡️ Composite Risk Scores Higher score = higher risk

📊 Detailed Score Breakdown

Coin	Price	Off Peg (bps)	Composite	Risk	Lane 1	Lane 2	Lane 3
DAI	1.000136	1.4	37.3%	Moderate	0.7%	100.0%	10.1%
FDUSD	0.997318	26.8	61.4%	High	54.7%	100.0%	8.8%
USDC	0.999778	2.2	37.2%	Moderate	1.1%	100.0%	8.8%
USDT	0.999081	9.2	38.8%	Moderate	4.6%	100.0%	8.7%

🔔 Current Alerts 1 active

Level	Coin	Score	Driver	Message
ORANGE	FDUSD	0.6139	changepoint	FDUSD: High risk (score 0.6139). Price at $0.9973 (27 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint.

Moderate DAI — 1.000136 1.4 bps off peg

Lane 1 — Price Dev

0.7%

Max 24h: 5.1 bps
Persistence: 0m @ 25bps

Lane 2 — BOCD

100.0%

Changepoint: 0.9993
Run length: 1439 obs

Lane 3 — DIRA

10.1%

MiPD: 0.13 · LPD: 0.06

Composite

37.3%

Alert: none
Class: stable

Polymarket 🎲

4.95%

Depeg risk (prediction market)

High FDUSD — 0.997318 26.8 bps off peg

Lane 1 — Price Dev

54.7%

Max 24h: 28.7 bps
Persistence: 238m @ 25bps

Lane 2 — BOCD

100.0%

Changepoint: 0.9993
Run length: 1439 obs

Lane 3 — DIRA

8.8%

MiPD: 0.10 · LPD: 0.06

Composite

61.4%

Alert: attention
Class: monitor

Polymarket 🎲

N/A

Data pending

Moderate USDC — 0.999778 2.2 bps off peg

Lane 1 — Price Dev

1.1%

Max 24h: 4.6 bps
Persistence: 0m @ 25bps

Lane 2 — BOCD

100.0%

Changepoint: 0.9993
Run length: 1439 obs

Lane 3 — DIRA

8.8%

MiPD: 0.10 · LPD: 0.06

Composite

37.2%

Alert: none
Class: stable

Polymarket 🎲

1.50%

Depeg risk (prediction market)

Moderate USDT — 0.999081 9.2 bps off peg

Lane 1 — Price Dev

4.6%

Max 24h: 11.7 bps
Persistence: 0m @ 25bps

Lane 2 — BOCD

100.0%

Changepoint: 0.9993
Run length: 1439 obs

Lane 3 — DIRA

8.7%

MiPD: 0.10 · LPD: 0.06

Composite

38.8%

Alert: none
Class: stable

Polymarket 🎲

4.90%

Depeg risk (prediction market)

📈 Peg Deviation Timeline Threshold bands: 25 / 50 / 100 bps

🔥 Risk Heatmap Low · Moderate · High · Critical

Date	DAI	USDC	USDe	USDT
2026-10-17	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-10-16	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-10-15	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-10-14	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-10-13	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-10-12	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-10-11	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-10-10	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-10-09	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-10-08	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-10-07	Moderate	Moderate	—	—
2026-10-06	Moderate	Moderate	—	—
2026-10-05	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-10-04	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-10-03	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-10-02	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-10-01	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-30	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-28	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-27	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-26	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-25	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-24	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-23	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-22	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-21	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-20	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-19	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-09-18	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-17	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-16	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-15	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-14	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-09-13	Moderate	Moderate	—	—
2026-09-12	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-11	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-10	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-09	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-08	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-07	Moderate	Moderate	—	—
2026-09-06	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-09-05	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-04	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-03	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-02	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-09-01	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-31	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-30	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-29	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-28	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-08-27	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-26	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-25	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-24	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-23	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-22	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-08-21	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-20	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-19	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-18	Moderate	Moderate	—	—
2026-08-17	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-16	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-15	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-14	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-13	Moderate	Moderate	—	—
2026-08-12	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-11	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-10	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-08-09	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-08	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-07	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-06	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-05	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-08-04	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-03	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-02	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-08-01	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-31	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-30	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-29	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-07-28	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-27	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-26	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-25	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-07-24	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-23	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-22	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-21	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-20	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-07-19	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-18	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-17	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-16	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-07-15	Moderate	Moderate	—	—
2026-07-14	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-13	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-12	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-11	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-10	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-07-09	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-08	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-07	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-06	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-05	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-04	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-03	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-02	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-07-01	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-06-30	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-06-29	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-06-28	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-06-27	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-06-26	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-06-25	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-06-24	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-06-23	Moderate	Moderate	—	—
2026-06-22	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-06-21	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-06-20	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-06-19	Moderate	Moderate	—	—
2026-06-18	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-06-17	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-06-16	Moderate	Moderate	—	Moderate
2026-06-15	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-06-14	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
2026-06-13	Low	Low	Low	Low
2026-06-12	Low	Low	Low	Low
2026-06-11	Low	Low	Low	Low
2026-06-10	Low	Low	Low	Low
2026-06-09	Low	Low	Low	Low
2026-06-08	Low	Low	Low	Low
2026-06-07	Low	Low	Low	Low
2026-06-06	Low	Low	Low	Low

⚖️ Curve 3Pool Imbalance Share of 3Pool liquidity per stablecoin

🎲 Prediction Markets — Depeg Probability Source: Polymarket · 2026-10-17

USDC depeg by December 31?

📋 Alert History Log 1 total events

Time	Level	Coin	Score	Driver	Message
2026-06-14T17:08:33	ORANGE	USDe	0.5354	changepoint	USDe: High risk (score 0.5354). Price at $0.9949 (51 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint.

📖 Methodology

For a detailed explanation of how the detector works — signal engineering, scoring formulas, academic references, and limitations — see the Peg Instability Detector Methodology page.

🔍 See Also

Daily Reports — Full KPI snapshots
Charts & Data Sources — KPI dashboard references
Weekly Digest — Trend analysis