🛡️ Peg Instability Detector
The Stableclaim Peg Instability Detector monitors USDT, USDC, DAI, and USDe for signs of peg instability using a three-lane signal engine. Data updates twice daily (06:30 UTC, 18:30 UTC). Prediction market data from Polymarket polls hourly for depegging probability signals.
⚡ Prefer it interactive? The live dashboard shows system risk at a glance, and its charts view has brush-zoomable depeg odds, threshold-banded peg timelines, and the risk heatmap — same data, sharper tools.
Coins Tracked
3
DAI, FDUSD, USDC
Highest Risk
FDUSD
High — Score 62.8%
Active Alerts
1
⚠️ Monitoring advised
Risk Range
High
Low → Critical scale
🛡️ Composite Risk Scores
Higher score = higher risk
📊 Detailed Score Breakdown
| Coin | Price | Off Peg (bps) | Composite | Risk | Lane 1 | Lane 2 | Lane 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAI | 0.999693 | 3.1 | 37.6% | Moderate | 1.5% | 100.0% | 9.6% |
| FDUSD | 0.997360 | 26.4 | 62.8% | High | 57.1% | 100.0% | 10.7% |
| USDC | 0.999841 | 1.6 | 37.1% | Moderate | 0.8% | 100.0% | 8.8% |
🔔 Current Alerts
1 active
| Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORANGE | FDUSD | 0.6285 | changepoint | FDUSD: High risk (score 0.6285). Price at $0.9974 (26 bps off peg). Primary driver: changepoint. |
Moderate
DAI — 0.999693
3.1 bps off peg
Lane 1 — Price Dev
1.5%
Max 24h: 4.9 bps
Persistence: 0m @ 25bps
Persistence: 0m @ 25bps
Lane 2 — BOCD
100.0%
Changepoint: 0.9993
Run length: 1439 obs
Run length: 1439 obs
Lane 3 — DIRA
9.6%
MiPD: 0.12 · LPD: 0.06
Composite
37.6%
Alert: none
Class: stable
Class: stable
Polymarket 🎲
6.00%
Depeg risk (prediction market)
High
FDUSD — 0.99736
26.4 bps off peg
Lane 1 — Price Dev
57.1%
Max 24h: 40.0 bps
Persistence: 253m @ 25bps
Persistence: 253m @ 25bps
Lane 2 — BOCD
100.0%
Changepoint: 0.9993
Run length: 1439 obs
Run length: 1439 obs
Lane 3 — DIRA
10.7%
MiPD: 0.14 · LPD: 0.06
Composite
62.8%
Alert: attention
Class: monitor
Class: monitor
Polymarket 🎲
N/A
Data pending
Moderate
USDC — 0.999841
1.6 bps off peg
Lane 1 — Price Dev
0.8%
Max 24h: 3.1 bps
Persistence: 0m @ 25bps
Persistence: 0m @ 25bps
Lane 2 — BOCD
100.0%
Changepoint: 0.9993
Run length: 1439 obs
Run length: 1439 obs
Lane 3 — DIRA
8.8%
MiPD: 0.10 · LPD: 0.06
Composite
37.1%
Alert: none
Class: stable
Class: stable
Polymarket 🎲
1.40%
Depeg risk (prediction market)
📈 Peg Deviation Timeline
Threshold bands: 25 / 50 / 100 bps
🔥 Risk Heatmap
Low · Moderate · High · Critical
| Date | DAI | USDC | USDe | USDT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Moderate | Moderate | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-07-13 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-07-12 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-07-11 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-07-10 | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate |
| 2026-07-09 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-07-08 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-07-07 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-07-06 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-07-05 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-07-04 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-07-03 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-07-02 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-07-01 | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate |
| 2026-06-30 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-06-29 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-06-28 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-06-27 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-06-26 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-06-25 | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate |
| 2026-06-24 | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate |
| 2026-06-23 | Moderate | Moderate | — | — |
| 2026-06-22 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-06-21 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-06-20 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-06-19 | Moderate | Moderate | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-06-17 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-06-16 | Moderate | Moderate | — | Moderate |
| 2026-06-15 | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate |
| 2026-06-14 | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate |
| 2026-06-13 | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| 2026-06-12 | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| 2026-06-11 | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| 2026-06-10 | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| 2026-06-09 | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| 2026-06-08 | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| 2026-06-07 | Low | Low | Low | Low |
| 2026-06-06 | Low | Low | Low | Low |
⚖️ Curve 3Pool Imbalance
Share of 3Pool liquidity per stablecoin
🎲 Prediction Markets — Depeg Probability
Source: Polymarket
· 2026-07-15
USDC depeg by December 31?
📋 Alert History Log
1 total events
| Time | Level | Coin | Score | Driver | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14T17:08:33 | ORANGE | USDe | 0.5354 | changepoint |
📖 Methodology
For a detailed explanation of how the detector works — signal engineering, scoring formulas, academic references, and limitations — see the Peg Instability Detector Methodology page.
🔍 See Also
- Daily Reports — Full KPI snapshots
- Charts & Data Sources — KPI dashboard references
- Weekly Digest — Trend analysis